Trade Set-Up (Cautiously Optimistic Bias): Global sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as major US indices closed in the green overnight.

GIFT NIFTY is trading near 25100, indicating a flat to mildly positive start for Indian markets.

All eyes remain on the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed rate decision later this week, which is likely to keep volatility elevated.

Key intraday levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty based on options positioning.

Options Data Analysis – Budget Volatility Zone

NIFTY

• PCR at 0.59, indicating a technically oversold condition

• Such levels often trigger relief bounces, but sustainability remains uncertain

• Highest Call OI at 25200 & 25300, acting as immediate resistance zones

• Put writers active at 25000, a crucial psychological support

• A break below 25000 could accelerate selling towards 24800

On the chart, Nifty has broken below its 200-day EMA (25142–25165), which now acts as immediate resistance.

However, the index is currently testing a must-hold horizontal support zone at 25000–25050.

BANK NIFTY

• Trading near 58470

• Needs to sustain above 58280 to show any strength

• Below 58000, the structure weakens significantly and becomes the final line of defence

Market Outlook for Today

• Expect sharp intraday swings driven by Budget expectations

• Any rally towards 25180–25250 is likely to face selling pressure

• This is not a market for aggressive buying

Strategy:

✔ Focus on capital protection

✔ Trade light and avoid leverage

✔ Expect sudden 100-point moves due to Budget positioning

Disclaimer: We are not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor. The analysis shared above is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a certified financial planner before executing any trade.