Trade Set-Up (Budget Day Special Session): US & Asian markets remain weak to cautious. US markets closed lower on Friday amid uncertainty about the Fed.
Global cues are secondary today—100% focus is on the Union Budget speech at 11:00 AM.
Today is not a regular trading day. It’s Union Budget Day 2026, and since it falls on a Sunday, markets are open for a special session. Expect heightened volatility and fast moves.
Options Data Analysis
Heavy Call writing is visible at 25300–25500, acting as immediate resistance
Put writers active at 25100–25000, forming a strong support zone
Budget outcome will decide whether writers get trapped or rewarded
Bank Nifty View
Relative strength vs Nifty
Trading near the 59500–60000 zone
A favorable Budget (Capex push, no Capital Gains shock) could trigger upside momentum
Budget Scenarios (Important)
Positive surprise / Capex focus → Nifty may test 25600+
Negative surprise (tax/fiscal stress) → Sharp downside possible toward 24800
This is a binary event. Direction will emerge only after the speech, not before.
Metal Sector Insight
Friday (Jan 30) was a bloodbath for metals.
Nifty Metal Index fell ~5% in a single session
Weekly gains wiped out in hours
Why did the crash happen?
CME raised trading margins on Gold & Copper by ~20%
Stronger USD under the “Trump Trade” theme hurt demand
Result: forced selling and a chain reaction across metals
Long-term bullish structure in precious metals remains intact, but the easy-money January phase is over.
Pro Tip for Budget Day
Wait for volatility to settle.
Most traders lose money on Budget day not because they’re wrong, but because position sizing + wild swings stop them out.
Intraday Levels (Options-Based)
NIFTY BANK NIFTY RANGE FOR 01.02.2026 (BUDGET DAY)
NIFTY
Base: 25040 / 24875 / 24800
Breakout: 25560
Resistance: 25720 / 26035
BANK NIFTY
Base: 58940 / 58525 / 58000
Breakout: 60250
Resistance: 60780 / 61000
Verdict: Expect extreme intraday swings. Capital protection matters more than prediction today.
The real trend will reveal itself after the Budget, not during the first reaction.
Disclaimer: We are not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a certified financial planner before executing any trade.
